Avalanche Forecasting Begins as Winter Takes Hold

2nd July 2026|3 mins
Media Release

As wintry weather begins to impact the country, NZ Mountain Safety Council (MSC) is urging backcountry alpine adventurers to check the avalanche forecast before heading out.

The New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZAA), provided by MSC, is now forecasting across the 13 alpine regions it monitors over winter. The forecast gives backcountry users, such as skiers, snowboarders, mountaineers, trampers and hunters, vital information including danger ratings, anticipated avalanche problems and sliding hazards.

“Recent snowfall means some high alpine slopes are at the threshold where avalanches can occur,” says MSC Chief Executive Mike Daisley. “While avalanche activity has been limited so far this season, anyone planning a trip needs to check the NZAA forecast as part of their preparation and factor it into their planning.”

This year, the NZAA has introduced confidence statements into its forecasts. These include a low, moderate or high rating and corresponding explanation.

“Confidence statements are already widely used in avalanche forecasting around the world, including by Avalanche Canada, and we’re pleased to introduce them in Aotearoa to support our backcountry alpine community,” says Daisley. “Confidence statements add another level of information, giving alpine users a better understanding of the forecast and empowering them to make more informed decisions about their trip.”

Public observations remain a critical tool for forecasters, and MSC is encouraging backcountry users to continue to submit observations through the NZAA website this winter.

“Observations are a critical piece in the forecasting puzzle. They support avalanche forecasting and provide additional information for others heading into the backcountry,” says Daisley. “We want adventurers to prepare well, have a great day in the mountains and then give back to the community by logging a public observation.”


Find out more


PHOTO CREDIT | Bianca Bratton