Heuristics, often referred to as ‘mental shortcuts', play a critical role in our everyday lives, helping us make decisions faster and more efficiently. Most of the time this is a good thing, but in a harsh, unforgiving environment, such as New Zealand’s mountains, relying on mental shortcuts can lead to poor decisions that compromise your safety.
Many hiking and tramping incidents happen because of mental shortcuts. Learning what these traps are and how to avoid them is an essential part of keeping safe in the outdoors. We highlight six common mental shortcuts, how they could arise on a typical tramping trip and how to avoid them.
Familiarity
Making decisions based on past experiences.
In many everyday situations, like choosing a route to the supermarket, work or to drop the kids at school, familiarity can be useful, as it saves you time and mental processing. However, in the backcountry, succumbing to familiarity can lead to complacency, overlooking hazards and taking unnecessary risks that can make all the difference to your safety.
You’re planning to walk a track you’ve done before. You know how long it should take, how difficult it is and what the climb to the top is like. This prior knowledge is helpful as you plan and prepare. Based on your prior experience you may also expect track conditions to be the same as last time. On this occasion, however, the weather is quite different, with gale-force winds above the bushline. You weren’t prepared for these conditions and now you’re wishing that you’d paid more attention to the wind forecast and brought an extra windproof layer, hat and gloves. Approach every trip like it is the first time you’ve been there. Don’t make assumptions based on past experiences. Always carry essentials like a waterproof jacket, first aid kit, emergency shelter and emergency communication device, even if you’ve never had to use them before.
Conformity/Acceptance
Making decisions to ensure you fit in – or don’t stand out.
As humans, we don’t like to stand out from the bunch. ‘Going with the flow’ and ‘not making a fuss’ are often lauded characteristics in everyday life. While many of us would like to think we don’t ‘show-off’, we’d be lying if we said we’d never done something just to impress others or avoid saying something because it might create conflict. This desire to fit in or get approval from others is called ‘conformity’ or ‘acceptance’.
Acting a certain way to impress others can lead to some very bold and risky calls in the outdoors. This mental shortcut tends to show up in very specific circumstances. It’s common whenever there are both men and women in a group, and it tends to occur more often when there are new or less experienced members, or when there are group members who are not overly familiar with each other.
You’re out tramping with someone new or someone you look up to. You’re trying to impress them, so you don’t get too flustered when the weather starts deteriorating. As things continue to get worse, you dare not turn around now for fear of having been wrong. Facing up to conformity is a big challenge and requires a high degree of self-awareness. You need to learn to recognise when you’re doing something just because of how it looks to others. Stop and ask yourself: Would I do this if I were here alone?
Commitment/Goal-Oriented
Making decisions based on the end goal or objective.
Commitment is a trap that can be incredibly rewarding in everyday life, and even in the outdoors when applied correctly. Also known as ‘goal oriented’, it’s the way we tend to keep the long-term goal in mind to overcome obstacles along the way.
While there are plenty of reasons to celebrate commitment, in the context of outdoor adventures, especially in the backcountry, it’s important to recognise when we are doing something just because we are committed when red flags are flying.
You’ve taken a couple of days off work and driven 3 hours to get to your favourite national park. You’ve been planning this trip for months, and while the weather isn’t ideal, you’re keen to push on. You’re halfway to the hut for the night, and the snow is getting much deeper than you expected, and the wind is getting worse. You weren’t prepared for this, but surely turning back now would make it all a waste, so you continue to push on in worsening conditions. You’re committed, but at what point is that commitment creating a dangerous situation? One strategy to avoid the commitment trap is to set decision points for the trip before you leave. These could be specific locations or times where you will consciously stop and assess things like the weather, your pace and the remaining daylight, and then decide whether or not to continue. Having a plan B or backup options make it easier to change plans and avoid that feeling that the trip was wasted.
Expert Halo
Deferring decision-making to the perceived expert.
Have you ever let someone else make the decisions because they’re the expert? This is known as the expert halo mental shortcut.
No doubt we’ve all been out tramping in a group that has a perceived leader who, if not calling the shots, is certainly influencing them. To avoid this trap, ask yourself: Why are they the perceived leader? Is it because they think they know it all? Perhaps they’re overly confident in their opinion or they’re just the loudest person in the group. Or is it that they’re more experienced than you so you automatically feel like they’re in a better position to call the shots? None of those examples are great reasons to let them make all the decisions.
You’re out on a tramping trip for the weekend with a group of friends. One of them has taken charge, although you’re unsure whether the rest of the group decided that or if they appointed themselves as the leader. They are keen to tackle a river crossing and are adamant that it’s not a big deal. You aren’t sure but you keep quiet because you think: They have more experience than me so must know better. Having a leader in a group can be a good thing. But good leadership shouldn't be a dictatorship. Good leaders facilitate conversation and group decision-making, but they don’t dominate it. Key safety decisions should be made by involving everyone and creating an environment where everyone is comfortable voicing concerns. Often-times, listening to the concerns of the least experienced people in the group means that risks are managed more effectively.
Scarcity
Making decisions to do something because the opportunity doesn’t happen very often.
Have you ever had a dose of FOMO? The fear of missing out can be compelling, especially if that thing is a great trip outdoors. Most of us don’t get the chance to get out as much as we’d like, so when the opportunity comes along, we don’t want to miss it. We tend to feel under more pressure to get a hold of something if we aren’t sure there will be another opportunity.
The scarcity mindset can blind us from making sensible decisions because we’re motivated by the lack of regular opportunity.
You’ve got two weeks off work to do a tramp – the only time you’ll get off this year. The forecast is for rain, but you continue with your plans for fear of missing this rare opportunity. The rivers are rising quickly, the tracks are slippery and conditions are far worse than you expected. You push on, worried that turning back would mean missing out. Scarcity can be powerful, but is it clouding your judgment? Make sure you consider the facts when making decisions before the trip and along the way, and change your plans accordingly. This includes the weather forecast, the changing conditions, how you’re feeling and the daylight hours. Having a plan B or backup options make it easier to change plans and avoid that feeling that your time was wasted.
Social Proof
Making decisions based on evidence that others have been there with the assumption that it must be safe.
Sometimes called ‘tracks’, this trap involves being influenced by the presence of others or evidence that others have been there before you. It can make you more likely to do something you aren’t sure about because you can see that others have done it. Social proof becomes a trap when you start thinking a route, decision or action is safe because others are doing it (or you can see evidence they have done it) and aren’t getting into trouble.
You’re on an alpine tramp in late October, you approach a slope covered in snow, you feel a little uneasy because it looks like it would be the right angle for an avalanche. However, you see some footsteps through the snow and out the other side. You think to yourself, "They made it, so can I", and off you go. You’ve made that decision based primarily on social proof rather than taking time to do a thorough assessment of the conditions yourself. Before following others, stop and consider:
Questions people ask about mental shortcuts
Mental shortcuts, also called heuristics, are quick decision-making tools our brains use to save time and effort. Recognising common traps like familiarity, conformity, or goal commitment helps trampers and hikers make safer decisions. Mental shortcuts can cause people to underestimate hazards, follow others without questioning or push on in unsafe conditions. In the outdoors, where weather and terrain change quickly, these decisions may result in serious incidents or fatalities. You can avoid mental shortcut traps by treating each trip as new, setting decision points in advance, encouraging group discussions and always having a plan B. The six most common heuristics linked to outdoor accidents are:
What To Do Next
Continue your preparation with our online resources. There is still plenty to learn to ensure a safe and enjoyable trip.
Find out more about outdoor safety
- Learn about river safety | Recognise the signs of an unsafe river and how to cross safely
- Get avalanche ready | Improve your avalanche IQ before going backcountry
- Be prepared for the conditions| Watch our video for essential tips on preparing for all weather
Read our series on mental shortcuts
- A Familiar Trap
- Would I do This if I Were Here Alone?
- Avoiding Over-Commitment
- The Expert Halo
- The ‘if they’re doing it, it must be ok’ Trap
This series was also published in Wilderness magazine
This page was reviewed and updated in September 2025